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In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. An example is the projected cooling of the atmosphere over eastern Greenland and the northern North Atlantic during the 21st century due to increased freshwater in the North Atlantic and weakening of the thermohaline circulation [e.g., Drijfhout et al., 2012]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. Atmospheric moisture in the Arctic is a result of local evaporation and moisture transport from lower latitudes (Figure 1). This is the case particularly for precipitation, snowfall, evaporation/evapotranspiration, and cloud variables. Part I: Comparison with observations and previous studies, Evaluation of the surface representation of the Greenland ice sheet in a general circulation model, Overview of Arctic cloud and radiation characteristics, Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humidity, Near‐surface meteorology during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of reanalyses and global climate models, Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections, A note on surface humidity measurements in the cold Canadian environment, Modeling the effects of wind redistribution on the snow mass budget of polar sea ice, The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late 21st century, Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability, Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability, The role of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the zonal‐mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss, Characteristics of water‐vapour inversions observed over the Arctic by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and radiosondes, Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: A review. Arctic Freshwater Synthesis: Introduction, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, http://www.climate‐cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/afs, http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA‐55/index_en.html#usage, 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2648:ROSITT>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0072:APAEMR>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1923:SATCOH>2.0.CO;2, http://www.biodivcanada.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=137E1147‐0, The Arctic: An AGU Joint Special Collection, Pan‐Arctic except for localized decreases in Canada, Siberia, and the North Greenland Sea (, I: Pan‐Arctic terrestrial regions north of 60°N, (, D: Arctic north of 60°N, particularly Arctic Ocean (, I: Pan‐Arctic north of 60°N, particularly eastern Canada and the Arctic Ocean (, Canada, but in summer both I and D in the upper McKenzie River basin (, January–October in the Chukchi, Beaufort, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas (, Northern continents, especially Eurasia (. A robust increase in precipitation with scattered results for trends in cloudiness seems possible if the clouds contain more water and the precipitation intensity accordingly increases. [2016], and therefore not addressed here. Our understanding of the past and present‐day Arctic and high‐latitude hydrological cycle is based on in situ and remote sensing observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model hindcasts. These problems may have contributed to the weaker precipitation in models than in observations. Further, historical climate model experiments have been a major approach to understand the drivers of the past changes (section 3.3). If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, [2016], and Wrona et al. Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. In winter, with no solar radiation, clouds determine the distribution of net thermal radiation (defined positive downward), a distinct bimodal distribution with one peak at ~ −40–50 W m−2, with the lowest temperatures and associated with clear conditions, and another one near 0 W m−2 [Stramler et al., 2011; Morrison et al., 2011] associated with clouds. Hence, the decrease in precipitable water can only be due to a decrease in moisture transport to these sea areas. We focus on multidecadal projections by the end of the 21st century, although near‐term projections (up to 2050) are broadly similar in sign, but with reduced magnitude and greater uncertainty due to natural variability. Although flooding is not yet common in the Arctic, future perspectives with thinner sea ice and increasing precipitation (section 4.1) suggest a potentially increasing percentage of snow ice and superimposed ice in the Arctic sea ice thickness. An important source of errors, for both reanalyses and climate models, is the suite of complex physical processes extant in the Arctic atmosphere and their interaction with the Earth surface [Vihma et al., 2014].

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